To:                   Robin Owen on SY "Whisper"

From:              Commanders' Weather Corporation, tel: 603-882-6789

Route:             Opua, NZ to Savusavu, Fiji

Depart:            approx.  2200utc Mon, May 5, 2008

Prepared:        1200utc Sun, May 4, 2008

 

Robin, please keep us updated with your position and conditions so we can follow your progress.

 

Summary:  

 

1) Latest forecast consensus is surprisingly in agreement with each other, with a few changes in timing and movement of the lows from over the past few days

  a) elongated area of low pressure extends around 37S and from 165-175E

  b) currently, spiraling to the E, it is beginning to shift the winds at Cape Reinga and Cape Karikari out of the WNW and NW at 12-15kts, at midnight local time

2) low pressure which has been mainly stationary near the Chatham Islands is beginning to slide off to the SE

  a) allowing the double low pressure area just W of North Island to continue on it trek to the E today

  b) expecting winds around Opua to remain out of the NW-WNW during the first half of your Monday, local time

  c) then slowly back through the W to the SW and probably SSW by departure time

  d) think your winds will remain gusty for the first 18-24 hours, as the first low moves over the Chatham Islands and the westernmost low is expected to weaken as it slides SE then S toward the first low during the 6th, local time

3) should begin to feel the effects of the weak high pressure that fills in behind the lows during the 7th, local time

  a) as your winds and seas lighten

  b) with winds becoming light NE by later on the 7th

4) these NE winds will back and build out of the NW during the 8th as the next low pressure area and cold front approach NZ from the SW

  a) by midday, local time, on the 8th, expect the low to be near SW South Island, NZ with the cold front stretching N, close to 170E, to about 28S

  b) with winds continuing to back to the W and build to 20-30kts sustained with gusts possible around 40kts during the 9th , as the low intensifies, centered near Auckland

5) from the 9th through the 11th, expect you'll remain in gusty W winds around the top of the low's circulation

  a) this persistent wind direction with gusty winds of 15-30kts should build your seas to probably as high as 12-15ft around the 11th

  b) but these seas will be behind you and should begin to ease during the 12th

6) the other weather features we are watching are the "tropical" lows that are forecast to form on the tropical frontal boundary that stretches from S Papua New Guinea and extend to N Vanuatu then toward Fiji

  a) the first low is expected to form near Fiji during the 6th, local time, and slide off to the SE during the 7th and 8th

  b) which should not affect your trip at all

7) however, another "tropical" low is forecast to develop near N Vanuatu during the 8th and move to Fiji during the 9th

  a) think the presence of this "tropical" low and the weak high pressure that is pushing to the E just S of Fiji will help to build your winds out of the W-WSW during the 10th

  b) this low is forecast to slide SE from it's position over S Tonga during the 10th

  c) allowing you to head toward Savusavu on light SE winds, potentially, for your last 24-36hours of the trip

 

 

Routing:

 

1) routed you at 6kts for the trip

  a) expect you should be able to motor around 6kts during the light air also

2) did jog you on a more NE course during the 8th as your winds build out of the N-NNW

  a) not sure if you need to take the jog but it should show you slower route

  b) certainly, the quicker you can get N, the better for you to reach the easing winds and seas from about 23S through your arrival into Savusavu

 

 

 

Wind forecasts

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

 

Sun, May 4 – offshore Opua

18: 350-330/12-18

Weather: variably cloudy, with scattered showers/squalls

Seas 6-8 feet, W swell

 

Mon, May 5

00: 340-300/14-20

06: 300-270/15-23 g30

12: 260-230/ 20-30 g40                      

18: 240-210/ 20-30 g40

22: 210-180/15-22 g30                        approx. departure

Weather: Becoming variably to partly cloudy with isolated showers and squalls by departure time-

Seas building to 10-12 feet by Mon evening, local time, then easing to 8-10ft around departure time, W swell

 

Tue, May 6

00: 200-180/ 16-24 g30                      

06: 200-180/ 16-24 g30

12: 190-170/ 15-23 g30                      

18: 190-170/12-20

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy with isolated showers and squalls – conditions should be gusty and squally during the day

Seas 8-10 feet, mainly W-WSW swell

 

Wed, May 7 – crossing high pressure

00: 180-160/ 8-14                                nr 32 50S/175 E

12: light and variable for a time, becoming 040-020/4-8       

Weather: partly cloudy, slight chc shower

Seas easing to 5-8 feet, light W and NE swell

 

Thu, May 8

00: 010-340/ 8-15                    nr 30 30S/175 30E

12: 350-320/ 18-25 g30-35                

Weather: Becoming variably cloudy with increased chc showers and squalls

Seas 6-8ft, W swell

 

Fri, May 9

00: 290-270/ 20-30 g35-40                 nr 28 40S/177 10E

12: 290-270/ 18-25 g30-35                

Weather: Variable cloudiness with scattered showers and squalls

Seas building to 8-10ft, W-SW swell

 

Sat, May 10

00: 290-270/ 20-28 g35                       nr 26 20S/177 50E

12: 270-250/ 18-25 g35                      

Weather: Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and squalls

Seas building to 10-12ft, W-SW swell

 

Sun, May 11

00: 270-290/ 15-23 g30                       nr 24 S/178E

12: 270-290/ 15-22 g30                      

Weather: Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and squalls

Seas building to 12-15ft, W-SW swell

 

Best Regards,

Brynn Campbell



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